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Bulls & Bears
This past week’s Bulls & Bears: Gary B. Smith, Exemplar Capital managing partner; Pat Dorsey, Morningstar.com director of stock research; Tobin Smith, ChangeWave Research editor; Scott Bleier, HybridInvestors.com president; Bob Froehlich, DWS Scudder chairman of investor strategy, and Adam Lashinsky, Fortune Magazine senior writer.
Trading Pit: Stock Market Makes History!
What a week for Wall Street! The Dow and S&P 500 have never been higher — the Nasdaq also soaring. In fact the Dow Jones Industrials have gained just about 500 points this month alone and it's only half over. Where are we heading?
Bob Froehlich: 14,000 is the necessary stop to get to 15,000 — which is exactly where the Dow will be by the end of the year! This is a simple concept. There is just too much money chasing too few stocks. The merger and acquisition activity has been booming and it’ll be even bigger in the second half of the year. There is just too much liquidity in the market and it’s not stopping or slowing down anytime soon. See you at 15,000!
Adam Lashinsky: Anytime the market makes a new high, investors should stop and look at the risks. We aren’t going much lower, but we’re not going to 15,000. There is a big fear that some of the liquidity could dry up as the debt markets dry up. If this happens, the buyouts will slow down and that will have a big impact on the stock market.
Tobin Smith: When you have a run like this you should expect a pullback. But any pullback right now is a great buying opportunity! And most important to investors, the rest of the world is growing 4 percent, which is faster than we are. They are the driver; not the United States. Investors should buy the market dips. You need to be fully exposed to stocks.
Scott Bleier: The market is lying! The economy is not as strong as the market is telling us. What happened this week is a lot of bearish bets being closed out, short covering, and a very weak dollar forcing foreign investors to buy American assets. This will not continue! Interest rates will go up and the market will go down by the end of this year.
Gary B. Smith: As long as the Federal Reserve stays on the sidelines, stocks should be fine. The retail report the end of last week indicated a small retail slowdown by the consumers. But that is good because it means the economy is not overheating and indicates the Fed should remain on the sidelines. The one thing I think we should worry about is that the volume we saw last week was kind of light. Stocks had a huge rally on Thursday and normally there would have been a lot of volume behind that movement.
Pat Dorsey: We have more money chasing less equity. Equity is being retired off the U.S market at a rate of about 6 percent per quarter. As long as interest rates stay low and the buyout market stays strong, the market will keep go higher. The large blue chips, which dominate the major indices, are still cheap! And that’s what dominates the headlines.
You really want to know how good the Bulls & Bears guys are at picking stocks? We've got their best... and worst calls so far this year.
To see who’s made the best call this clear click here.
Here are the worst calls so far this year.
In the beginning of June, Bob said he loved, loved, loved the New York Times (NYT) when our guest Ann Coulter asked him about it. But so far, the stock doesn’t love, love, love him. It's stumbled a bit since then, falling 9 percent. However, he still likes the stock.
(New York Times Friday’s Close: $24.27)
Pat said, "Eat up Whole Foods (WFMI)!" in February. But anyone who bought it has been starving! It’s down 9 percent since then. Back then Pat predicted the stock would be up 50 percent in 2 years and he’s still standing by it.
(Whole Foods Friday’s Close: $40.50)
At the end of 2006, Gary B. said Starbucks (SBUX) was the best stock to own for 2007. Looks like all its Frappuccinos are cooling off the stock, it’s down 26 percent! However, Gary B. says now is the perfect time for a refill! He admits it won’t be the stock of 2007, but thinks investors should hold on to the stock and buy more.