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Bulls & Bears | Cavuto on Business | Forbes on FOX | Cashin' In
Bulls & Bears
This past week's Bulls & Bears:
• Gary B. Smith, columnist for RealMoney.com
• Pat Dorsey, Morningstar.com director of stock research
• Tobin Smith, ChangeWave Research editor
• Scott Bleier, president of HybridInvestors.com
• Bob Olstein, president of the Olstein Funds
• Charles Payne, CEO of Wall Street Strategies
Trading Pit: Iraq Election Rally
Elections in Iraq last week were a major victory for democracy.
But will it be a victory for the market? Is this what Wall Street needs to send the Dow past 11,000 and even higher?
Tobin Smith: Yes! This is great news! Iraqi voters turned out in huge numbers and they are getting farther down the road towards democracy. This tells the naysayers like Howard Dean and Congressman John Murtha, D-Pa., that we are not pulling out. As our exposure goes down, stocks will go up. However, the Fed will have a bigger impact when they let us know when they will stop raising interest rates.
Gary B. Smith: I agree with everything Toby just said, but the market will go down. It's sad to say, but the market is not focused on Iraq right now. We're losing track of all these elections. However, each one is great progress for Iraq and the Bush administration. As for the stock market, I think it will trend down in December, and get plain ugly in January. I'd start selling stocks and have only about 3 percent of my money in stocks right now.
Scott Bleier: The market is done going up for now and these elections won't send it higher. The good news is that the end game is finally in sight. But for the market, the bad news is that defense and other stocks have begun to anticipate it and the $100 billion stimulus is about to end. Also, the tax cuts need to be made permanent or the stock market will lose 5 percent immediately.
Bob Olstein: Iraq has been an important psychological barrier for the market, but stocks are still focused on cash flow. The stock market is about 5-6 percent undervalued. Investors need to focus on cash flow and clean accounting and I think we'll see single digit returns. It's hard finding cheap stocks right now and we have 10-11 percent in cash.
Pat Dorsey: A decreased U.S. military presence means the deficit should start going down and that will definitely be a positive. But these longer-term issues like the deficit, what the Fed does, and earnings are bigger issues to the market.
The Chartman and Charles each pick their best stocks of 2006.
Gary B. Smith: I really like gold producer, Newmont Mining (NEM). I was a skeptic on gold, but this is one way to play it. The stock just cracked a multi-year high and is heading to the $60s. (Newmont Mining closed on Friday at $50.50.)
Charles Payne: Fundamentally, this is not a buy because it's lagging the industry. The chart does look good, but if something goes wrong with gold, Newmont will be the one hit hardest.
Charles Payne: My first pick is Tellabs (TLAB). The telecommunications boom is starting to come back. Sales have been going through the roof. It's on the verge of making a huge breakout. Our clients own this stock. (Tellabs closed on Friday at $10.96.)